To the extent that every baseball game is a competition between my first baseman and your first baseman, my shortstop versus your shortstop. That’s baseball’s version of the arms race. On any given day, my first baseman has the potential to do A and your first baseman has the potential to do B. And as we go through that head-to-head comparison, whoever has piled up the most potential on their side is going to score the most runs. If you have Cora and he hits .250 with no power, as good as he might be on defense, it might be more than you can afford. So I kind of understand where they’re going, because at least Alex Gonzalez has a little bit of pop. But it was a very un-Red Sox-like signing. I think they kind of got boxed in. Maybe part of it was all the confusion they had this winter with Theo leaving. But the upshot of it is that is that if Pedroia can mature quickly — and we at Baseball Prospectus probably like Pedroia better than anyone; certainly better than Baseball America, or anyone else — if he can do that and be a real contributor, that’s gonna make a huge difference. PECOTA absolutely salivates over Pedroia, thinks he’s going to be a tremendous player, but I’m not sure what PECOTA has been smoking. I like him, but I don’t think he’s going to be the next Honus Wagner.
MM: Do you think it was worth trading a touted prospect like Andy Marte to get Coco Crisp?
SG: I do, actually. I think Coco’s gonna be very good, and I think [comparing him] and Johnny Damon, you’re going to have a very hard time telling their numbers apart this season. Damon derived a big benefit from Fenway, and is in the bad part of the aging curve. Coco may very well have peaked, but if he has, he’s not in a bad place. A real key to winning for any baseball team is strength up the middle. And the Red Sox took a gamble at staying ahead at that position. Five years from now, the story’s gonna be Andy Marte, and that the Red Sox got rid of a very good player, and Coco won’t be that exciting. But for the next few years, I think it’s gonna be a real help for them.
MM: In light of all the recent allegations, do you regret putting Barry Bonds on the cover of Baseball Between The Numbers?
SG: Hmmm, y’know, I don’t think so. Certainly it makes for . . . it certainly will grab your attention. Does this latest information skew some of the things in the book? Or change the way we might have approached Bonds? Yeah, it probably does. We’ll have to revisit that in paperback, I suppose.
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