John Edwards. Odds for nomination: 7-1.
Strengths: In any other year, Edwards would be the front-runner. He’s run before, he’s got a compelling message, and he’s running a good campaign, focusing on the early states where he has to do well or else.
Weaknesses: The problem is that this isn’t “any other year” and he’s up against two extraordinary candidates. To survive, he’ll have to eliminate one early and that raises the real question: could he beat Hillary or Obama one-on-one? It’s unlikely. A bit too “Southern” for some Northern voters.
Bottom Line: Though no one ever focuses on this, were Edwards to gain the nomination, he’d be the Dems’ strongest candidate in a general election because he’d make them competitive in states they traditionally don’t carry. A campaign worth watching, even if it doesn’t end up victorious.
Bill Richardson. Odds for nomination: 55-1.
Strengths: A serious Hispanic candidate for the presidency with both international and executive experience. Only serious westerner in race (he’s New Mexico’s governor).
Weaknesses: Despite running as a DC outsider, on the stump he sounds like the quintessential Beltway insider. That’s not good. Internet rumors already plaguing campaign. That’s not good. Seemingly endorsed by David Brooks (the conservative New York Times columnist) in a recent column. That’s not good either.
Bottom Line: Hard to see how he gets traction in this field. Maybe Brooks can get him appointed to the Times’ editorial board.
Chris Dodd. Odds for nomination: 60-1.
Strengths: Solid senator from Connecticut; appealing speaker. Will raise considerable money due to his post on the Senate Banking Committee.
Weaknesses: A DC insider — the textbook example of a candidate who tends not to do well in primaries. A New England senator running in the wake of John Kerry’s 2004 campaign, which kind of soured people on backing senators from New England.
Bottom Line: Won’t embarrass himself, but won’t get many votes either.
Joe Biden. Odds for nomination: 70-1.
Strengths: If he can edit himself — and that’s a big if — he usually has some interesting things to say. Will bring some humor and energy to the race.
Weaknesses: Virtually all the same problems as Dodd. And he does tend to put his foot in his mouth.
Bottom Line: A great candidate to have in the race and in debates. He’d be a better pundit than president, which is why, even though he’ll impress some voters, he’s not going anywhere.
Dennis Kucinich. Odds for nomination: 25,000-1.
Strengths: A super-liberal’s dream.
Weaknesses: There aren’t that many super-liberals left and most are likely to get more excited about Obama. Congressmen generally don’t win the presidency. Sadly, neither do candidates who remind everyone of the high-school class geek.
Bottom Line: Won’t be nearly as endearing this time as last. If he does this again, he’s headed for Harold Stassen status.
Mike Gravel. Odds for nomination: 1 million to 1.
Strengths: Was an interesting senator from Alaska who fought the war and the draft and wants to run a populist campaign.
Weaknesses: The war we’re referring to was Vietnam; hasn’t really been in the public eye in about three decades.
Bottom Line: No way.
REPUBLICANS (“MACHO MEN”)
Rudy Giuliani. Odds: even.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: Who else? The Policeman!
John McCain. Odds: 3-2.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: The Sailor! (Not a regular character in the group, but fans will remember the two members who performed “In The Navy” in uniform, and looked fantastic.)
Mitt Romney. Odds: 13-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: The Biker (because biking is the kind of job Romney will help keep in a competitive America rather than seeing it outsourced).
Sam Brownback. Odds: 40-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: Wouldn’t want to be a member of the Village People because Christian Right wouldn’t approve (and we know why).
James Gilmore. Odds: 500-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: See Brownback entry.
Mike Huckabee. Odds: 600-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: See Brownback entry.
Duncan Hunter. Odds: 1000-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: See Brownback entry.
Tom Tancredo. Odds: 5000-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: Any member of the group who came to our shores legally.
Ron Paul. Odds: 10,000-1.
If a member of the Village People, would want to be: Doesn’t join groups — he’s a libertarian.
On the Web
The Presidential Tote Board blog: //www.thephoenix.com/toteboard