ARMY OF ONE: The GOP has proven capable of holding the governor’s office, but not much else.

Why can’t the RI GOP get it together? 
Although he’ll be out of office in January, Laffey says he is not interested in becoming state party chair (“I just have different things on my agenda,” he tells the Phoenix. “They’ll be spoken about when I’m ready to.”). He is nonetheless characteristically blunt in diagnosing the shortcomings: “Elections are about message, money, and candidates, and they didn’t have all three . . . These are very simple things. This is not like some high-level nuclear science type thing at MIT.”

Other issues underlie the Republican Party’s problems in Rhode Island, as described by John Holmes, a former state party chairman, and others: a lack of fundamental grassroots organizing; the difficulty in getting people to run for office; how the party’s identity is torn between Rhode Island moderation and national conservatism; and the greater strength of Democratic-oriented institutions and constituencies.

While the national anti-Republican backlash hit local candidates, “We need a farm team and we’re not creating one,” acknowledges Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, one of the rising stars in the state GOP. “And we have good candidates who go out there and run and don’t get a tremendous amount of [party] support.” Once they do that, he says, they’re not willing to do it again.

Andrew Morse, a guiding force behind the conservative blog www.anchorrising.com, says Rhode Island Republicans have “got to make the decision to stand for something. I don’t think people really know what it is [that the party stands for].

Democratic activist Matthew Jerzyk, the editor of the liberal blog www.rifuture.org (and a contributor to the Phoenix) disputes the notion of weak Republican political power in Rhode Island, noting how the GOP has held the governor’s office for most of the last 20 years, and with a resulting lock on judicial appointments, has moved the judiciary to the right.

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Yet when it comes to the state GOP, Jerzyk says, “The obvious point is that political parties, both in the United States and across the world, are built from the ground up, and the Rhode Island Republican Party has been schizophrenic about whether they believe in that. Two years ago, they threw out a huge farm team of legislative candidates. This year, they focused on the top of the ticket,” and Democrats made broad gains in municipal government. “So the obvious advice that flows from that analysis is that the party should focus on building local candidates who have the ability to govern.”

What now for the RI GOP?
After Carcieri held a State Room press availability on the day after the November 7 election, Jeff Grybowski, the governor’s chief of staff, gamely insisted that the incumbent’s two percent margin of victory did indeed constitute a mandate — coming amid a hostile national political climate, a big statewide Democratic push, and the large turnout caused by the casino question.

In fact, the dark atmosphere surrounding the State House on this overcast afternoon seemed a better encapsulation of the landscape facing Carcieri during his second term.

The challenges include the discovery this week of a budget shortfall seen as topping $100 million, a raft of other pressing fiscal issues, and the reemergence of a stronger speaker. Carcieri characteristically touted himself as feeling “very positive” after warding off a tough challenge and he cited plans to roll out “a very ambitious agenda,” including a heightened focus on improved performance in the state’s urban school systems. It’s fair to wonder, though, how much enthusiasm he’ll have for fighting the General Assembly and the attendant task of building statewide Republican representation.

While change in the RI GOP’s leadership seems very likely by next March — if not sooner — Carcieri spokesman Jeff Neal remained oblique in the aftermath of the election. Asked if the governor will continue to support Morgan, Neal says, “It’s far too early to speculate about what, if any, change will occur at the Republican Party over the course of the next two years.”

Even with their considerable frustration, some Republican Rhode Islanders remain hopeful about the party’s future.

“We have nowhere to go but up, right?” jokes Mia Caetano, the head of the Rhode Island Young Republicans. Turning more serious, Caetano adds, “I think we’re going to get there. We have a lot of young energy. If we’re just given the opportunity to utilize that potential, I think the party will grow tremendously.”

Still, with each passing election season, as the RI GOP holds the governor’s office, but not much else, it moves farther and farther from the Holmes-engineered strategic apex of 1983 — when anger over a botched redistricting plan tripled, from seven to 21, the number of Republican state senators.

Considering this, it’s no wonder that Bill Lynch, chairman of the Rhode Island Democratic Party, says, “If I had any good advice for the Republican Party, which I do, I will never tell them. They ought to just keep doing what they’re doing.” 

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Ian Donnis:idonnis@thephoenix.com