Traditionally — and by their respective state laws — Iowa’s caucus is the first delegate-selection meeting of the nomination process, and New Hampshire holds the first primary a week later. This time around, the DNC has inserted Nevada’s caucus in between them. It is widely assumed that New Hampshire’s Secretary of State William Gardner will, sometime next year, defy the DNC by moving the primary up a week. (It is also widely assumed that if he does not do so, Gardner will be publicly tarred and feathered.) This will likely trigger Iowa to reschedule its caucus, which could force the DNC to refuse to recognize the results, generally causing the sort of self-destructive chaos and in-fighting for which the Democratic Party is famous.

While awaiting this catastrophe, New Hampshirites are forcing all presidential hopefuls to pledge fealty to New Hampshire’s primary, and to shun Nevada as though it has been quarantined for bird flu.

Patrick has never publicly taken a position on this vital topic. “I would love to see him acknowledge that having a state like New Hampshire, where there is a strong grassroots tradition, is a good thing for the selection process,” says Shaheen.

It’s usually an easy call for Massachusetts governors — not just because three of the last five have been planning a presidential run of their own using New Hampshire as their springboard, but because Massachusetts cashes in nearly as much as its northern neighbor.

Trouble is, the DNC is shaking up the schedule because the states with the biggest role are far from representative, demographically, of the diverse Democratic Party. Deval would have to really swallow his pride to stand up and say, in effect, that he thinks the party should continue to minimize the role of blacks and Hispanics in the process of choosing its presidential nominee.

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Many observers say he is dexterous enough to avoid taking a position either way, but that will be difficult. The symbolic importance of his view as an African-American is exactly why he’ll be asked the question by every prominent New Hampshire pol — and by every reporter whenever he crosses the northern border.

That is one more reason, of course, why Patrick should try to stay put — and uninvolved — for as long as he can. But the clock will be ticking. The question is, should Deval wait until the alarm goes off before he gets up and faces the inevitable?

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