Supporting any one of these candidates in the primary would undoubtedly annoy the other three. And yet there are still others to contend with, such as 2004 vice-presidential nominee John Edwards, Indiana senator Evan Bayh, and Vilsack, — any of whom might be the president from whom Patrick would have to request favors.

Several observers expect Patrick to remain neutral. “Why put your eggs in one basket?” asks Ferson.

“I’d be surprised if he’d want to stick his nose into presidential politics,” says Payne. “The risks are just too great for him.”

Of course, neutral doesn’t have to mean uninvolved. “He can offer to help everybody who comes through,” says former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen, who now teaches at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. “So whoever gets into the White House, they will remember and be helpful.”

That help might include advice, introductions (particularly to potential contributors), appearances at events, and recommendations on staff hires. “He has put himself in a position where he can be the Saint John the Baptist of the New Hampshire primary,” to whom every candidate must come, says Lou D’Allesandro, a New Hampshire state senator.

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But perhaps the greatest gift all comers will seek is the secret to the Holy Grail of contemporary politics: the grassroots.

“What is Deval Patrick’s greatest weapon? His grassroots movement,” says Ferson.

Already, potential candidates have been furiously planning how to replicate Howard Dean’s “Deaniac” movement — which seemed to disappear immediately after the 2004 primary, says Deborah “Arnie” Arnesen, former radio talk-show host and one of the premier players in New Hampshire Democratic politics. That flame was rekindled in the Granite State this fall in the stunning upset by the US House campaign of Democratic challenger Carol Shea-Porter. “Who’s going to take that and really go with it? Deval can do that,” Arnesen says.

You’d better believe that folks like Vilsack and Connecticut senator Christopher Dodd, among others, are drooling over Patrick’s grassroots organization. The candidates want his model, his staff, his advice, and, of course, all those volunteers — some 8000, according to the Patrick campaign — who woke up last Wednesday wondering, “What’s next?” For many the answer is, or could be, the New Hampshire primary. But on behalf of which candidate? “Patrick’s people would probably want a cue from the boss,” Payne says.

Reading tea leaves
Therein lies another problem for Patrick: while under intense scrutiny, he must try not to send signals that could be interpreted as gestures of support.

“If you’re standing next to a candidate, people think you’re voting for him,” McDonough says. And other candidates think those pictures are going to show up in their opponents’ mailers or TV ads.

Candidates and pundits will also be looking to see where Patrick’s staff shows up, and guessing whether Deval has directed them to be there. Primary-watchers study staff hires the way rotisserie-league players read the transaction wires on ESPN. Arnesen is quick to note, for example, that Patrick’s campaign used the services of David Axelrod, the media consultant for Obama. Ferson noticed Patrick made use of Larry Cartman, a long-time Kerry aide; another observer cites Patrick’s use of pollster Tom Kiley, who polled for Kerry’s ’04 campaign.

And, whatever Patrick’s intended involvement in New Hampshire, he can’t help but be a player in the Republican primary, where Mitt Romney absolutely needs to win his next-door state — and his opponents, including Arizona senator John McCain, absolutely need to stop him. His very presence is a symbolic repudiation of Mitt Romney, a reminder that two-thirds of Bay Staters voted against his hand-picked successor. “He will be the first person the media checks with when Romney says that everything was great when he left,” Payne says.

“Mitt has to be hysterical about a Democrat getting into office,” says Arnesen. “If Deval decides to get involved, he can start talking about things that are not helpful to Mitt Romney — he can step on Romney’s message.” Which is exactly what Romney tried to do to John Kerry in 2004.

The more time Patrick spends in New Hampshire, the higher Romney’s blood pressure will rise. Plus, Patrick will be in a perfect position to embarrass Romney, as his appointees get inside access to the agencies that have been shielded from Democrats’ prying eyes for 16 years. “If there are problems hidden, he will be the one who knows,” says Arnesen.

All of which leads some to suggest that, since he’s going to get sucked into it anyway, Patrick might as well jump in and endorse his chosen candidate. “It’s the same decision that every prominent Democrat in New Hampshire makes every four years,” says Demers. The snubbed candidates will get over it as soon as the nominee is chosen, he says, and Patrick “will be there in the fall of ’08 campaigning for the nominee, whether it’s the one he endorsed or not.”

Who should go first?
It’s rare that conversation with a New Hampshire political activist doesn’t veer into the “first in the nation primary” controversy within five minutes. To say the issue is important to them is an understatement; it is the issue.