Presidential Tote Board

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Stark reality

Your indispensable World Cup update
Steven Stark is known to Phoenix readers for his "Presidential Tote Board" odds-making feature, but it turns out that he and his son, Harrison, are also soccer aficionados, having become fans of London side Fulham FC during stays in the British capital.
By JEFFREY GANTZ | June 14, 2010

Maverick in a mess

If McCain loses, is it the mainstream media's fault?
A number of pundits, mostly of the conservative variety, would like you to believe that if Barack Obama wins on Tuesday, it's the mainstream media’s fault. Don't believe a word of it.
By STEVEN STARK | November 01, 2008

Lou Dobbs in 2012?

As the GOP implodes, the financial crisis may present a white-hot moment for a third-party voice to enter the fray
On November 4, the United States will elect a new president. And, on November 5, in this era of the permanent campaign, the Road to the White House 2012 will begin in earnest.
By STEVEN STARK | October 16, 2008

Radical tweak

Conservatives are missing the mark on Obama’s vulnerability
Every candidate has vulnerable blind spots, especially one new to the national scene, so there are ways to run against Obama. But the current approach has a particularly fatal flaw: it’s untrue.
By STEVEN STARK | July 02, 2008

Going Dutch

If Obama is to win the general election, he’ll have to crib from the playbook of . . . Ronald Reagan
One odd thing is already clear about the fall campaign: in it, one of the two major candidates, John McCain, is going to play only a minor role.
By STEVEN STARK | June 11, 2008

Dead heat

If the general election took place tomorrow, we’d have an unprecedented situation on our hands.
With a bit less than six months to go until Election Day, both parties now know their nominees with certainty.
By STEVEN STARK | May 14, 2008

Genie in a bottle

Obama can only hope his Reverend Wright problem ends up like the Clinton Gennifer Flowers scandal
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have split the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, sending the race stumbling along to West Virginia (where Clinton should win decisively) this Tuesday, and then beyond.
By STEVEN STARK | May 07, 2008

Emasculation proclamation

Is Barack Obama in danger of being outmanned?
Though the press and Barack Obama supporters often maintain the opposite, by the rough-and-tumble standards of American politics, Hillary Clinton really hasn’t run that tough a campaign against the Illinois senator.
By STEVEN STARK | April 30, 2008

Who's going to win?

2008 Portland Best Music Poll tote board
I give you the BMP Tote Board, handicapping the big categories — because who doesn’t like reducing real life to betting lines?
By SAM PFEIFLE | April 30, 2008

Beijing bounce

No matter how well American athletes do in the Olympics, John M c Cain should get a lift from the Games
All three candidates declared that if the Chinese don’t change their attitudes about Tibet in a hurry, President George W. Bush should boycott the opening ceremony of the Olympics in Beijing.
By STEVEN STARK | April 16, 2008

Endorsed by God

Reverend Wright tarnished Obama’s image as America’s anointed savior
The press has begun to bury the Reverend Jeremiah Wright story, convinced by the polls that the issue — for the most part — has gone away.
By STEVEN STARK | April 09, 2008

Clinton fatigue

What is driving the widespread movement pressuring Hillary to drop out, even though she is very much still in the race?
This past week, Vermont senator Patrick Leahy urged Hillary Clinton to quit the Democratic race in the interests of party unity.
By STEVEN STARK | April 02, 2008

Race gets in the race

Obama’s fast-track to success could be alienating working-class white voters, reminding them of their nemesis: affirmative action
For much of this election cycle, the assumption has been that foreign policy, specifically Iraq, would be the dominant issue on the campaign trail.
By STEVEN STARK | March 19, 2008

Giant step

If Hillary Clinton can take Pennsylvania, the Democrats will be shooting themselves in the foot
Two weeks ago we noted that, in spite of all the press hype promoting Barack Obama, the Democrats were only two steps away from chaos in their nomination process.
By STEVEN STARK | March 05, 2008

One for the books

Can tales of the Democratic party’s glory days help Obama and Clinton?
It’s hard to believe that we just had a week without a primary.
By STEVEN STARK | February 27, 2008

Civil war

If Clinton can pull off a couple more victories, the democratic party is headed for a disastrous, fight-worn finish
The whole Democratic race is still only two steps away from becoming a train wreck that could derail the party’s chances of winning in November.
By STEVEN STARK | February 20, 2008

Losing it?

Hillary Clinton has squandered a huge lead. Can she get it back?
It’s been said that one benefit of the torturous process presidential candidates must undergo is that it gives voters an extended view of their managerial ability.
By STEVEN STARK | February 14, 2008

The morning after

Now that Super Tuesday is behind them, where do they go from here?
Obama now faces a road that may well get rougher. And the fat lady is singing so loudly for Romney that she’s getting hoarse.
By STEVEN STARK | February 07, 2008

Super preview

Clinton and McCain shouldn’t write their acceptance speeches just yet
“We came back,” he says. “We came back . . . dear God, [but] not far enough!”
By STEVEN STARK | January 30, 2008

Net results

Rather than improving political discourse, Internet pundits are making things worse
The surprise results in New Hampshire exposed the myth, once and for all, that the Internet has made political reporting and analysis far better than it once was.
By STEVEN STARK | January 16, 2008

Going the distance

With two major contests over and done, the nomination process is coming into clearer focus. Who’ll be the last person standing?
So far the media storyline on Campaign 2008 is how extraordinary this year’s race has been, with the process dominated by upsets and a renewed call for change.
By STEVEN STARK | January 09, 2008

McCain still able

If the Arizona Senator can rally to win the GOP nomination, he’ll likely be our next president
Until the past week or so, the press had pretty much written off John McCain’s chances of gaining the GOP nomination.
By STEVEN STARK | December 26, 2007

Up-Hil climb

Even if Obama goes three for three in January, he still faces a steep challenge from Clinton
Those in the press always prefer presidential races to be close contests, and this year they’ve seemingly lucked out again.
By STEVEN STARK | December 19, 2007

Country cousins

Mike Huckabee and GOP b ête noir Jimmy Carter share few political views, but Huckabee’s rise mirrors that of Carter’s 1976 campaign
The Republicans may want to keep their opinions of Carter to themselves.
By STEVEN STARK | December 12, 2007

He ain’t heavy. . .

Denouncing the anti-Mormon prejudice facing Romney isn’t just the right thing to do — it’s also politically shrewd
One of Campaign 2008’s hottest topics has been the question of whether — and, if so, when — Mitt Romney needs to give the “Mormon speech."
By STEVEN STARK | November 19, 2007

Free speech!

Obama heads in the right direction with his latest strategic maneuvers, but still lacks a killer stump address
Finally, Barack Obama has begun drawing contrasts between himself and Hillary Clinton.
By STEVEN STARK | October 24, 2007

Ego Trippin’

Obama can still win the Democratic nomination — b ut first, he has to get over himself
All the stories chronicling the demise of the Barack Obama campaign are premature, no matter what the current polls say.
By STEVEN STARK | October 10, 2007

Wising up

Edwards must count on Democrats voting with their heads in the primaries
According to the latest conventional wisdom, Hillary Clinton is threatening to turn the Democratic presidential-nomination race into a rout.
By STEVEN STARK | October 03, 2007

Stable — within limits

Clinton’s dominated the Democratic field since february, but voters are getting used to Obama
There’s been very little movement in state and national Democratic polls over the past six months.
By STEVEN STARK | August 29, 2007

About-face time

Debates usually help lesser-known pols. This season, they’re crushing them.
Conventional wisdom says that debates help everyone but the front-runner in the polls, because they give the pack exposure and face time next to the leader.
By STEVEN STARK | August 15, 2007